“Grey Rhinoceros” event, a barrier to the video website’s homemade content

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Image Source @视觉中国

Image Source @视觉中国

The author of the Public Relations House, the author, is the seventh son of the people's Republic of China.

"the data is segmented by various video site platforms, but no video site has enough data to lead to strong productivity. The content industry needs unlimited automatic subdivision of data particles and harmonic resonance with changes in human emotion, interest and human nature in order to promote productivity. "

With the rapid development of Internet technology in China in the past decade, video websites have now replaced traditional television stations as the most important channel for film and television drama broadcasting. Television ratings continue to shrink, according to the survey of nearly half of the network video users are no longer in contact with television. In order to get rid of the passivity of video copyright negotiation and the lack of high-quality exclusive content, video websites have made efforts to make their own content, in addition to relying on the Internet technology giant (BAT) to "take advantage of the cool".

Iqiyi's tens of billions of yuan into the content copyright plan, Youku's three content strategies, Tencent video also to the content home-made field "hate money." From copyright purchase to content customization, self-control, tens of billions of content investment has led to the continued growth of paid members, but also left a number of video sites mired in losses. Since the first year of the Internet video production industry in 2014, five years have passed. Where is the "spring"?

Let's first figure out the concept: "The Grey Rhinoceros Incident" is a risk and pain point that is so common that people are used to it. The "golden master" behind the video website content self-made industry is much stronger than the average TV station burning ability. The video website is still in a state of loss until now. Why is the Internet "burning" out of an industry spring? It is because compared to other industries, this industry has too many "grey rhinoceros", and it can't be solved by burning money.

The first "grey rhino": data can not drive creation

In 2018, the self-produced dramas of the three major video websites of iQiyi, Youku, and Tencent Video surpassed the copyright drama for the first time, accounting for 65% of the total. The copyright price of the Internet has already surpassed that of TV stations before 2017. However, since the video website does not really grasp the user, the user is loyal to the content, especially the head content with extremely obvious drainage effect.

Therefore, in order to retain and attract users and increase market share, the competition for the purchase of head dramas by major video websites has become increasingly fierce, resulting in a sharp rise in the price of copyright, and the main owner of the backrest is “burning money for blood”.

The price of the first play skyrocketed from 20,000 yuan in 2010 to 9 million yuan in 2017, and reached 24 million in 2018.

The popularity of homemade video content does not represent the ease and contentment of video websites. Iqiyi lost more than 5.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2018, up 180 percent from the same period in 2017, especially in the third quarter. Youku and Tencent videos did not disclose specific data, but both publicly reported losses.

From the perspective of content input, the content cost of iQiyi 2018 in the first three quarters was 14.6 billion, which exceeded the annual content cost of 2017 in the iQiyi prospectus of 12.616 billion yuan.

Although the other two did not disclose the specific figures, the cost of purchasing the copyrighted content and the quality of the self-made content is inevitably high.

This is like "selling blood transfusions". If you don't invest in content costs, you will be abandoned by users immediately. If you continue to invest in gold-backed people who can only back-to-back, when is it?

The fundamental reason is that video site participation in content production is only an auxiliary work, and can not play a decisive role. In fact, there are only three links in the content industry: creation, promotion and distribution.

Creation is devoted to the study of the relationship between people, people, the relationship between people and the environment, the relationship between people and themselves, and the results of the research in the form of video, audio, text. But this work has nothing to do with the data, and the data can't drive the creation. No one can become a thousand-faced creator, because the data can change the creative style. Even if the user's needs can be directly provided to the creator, it is impossible to create content that is satisfactory to the user. Because the greatest charm of content lies in the unknown, this unknown needs to be "creative."

Promotion is the relationship between people and data, and people and data play a role in the content industry. Data can be drained, based on known data, can allow interested users to access content. However, the new content is uncontrollable, perhaps users will turn around because of a new creation of content powder, or even turn black. For example, a well-known screenwriter, the previous work is very popular, accumulated a large number of fans. Promotion can find these fans and promote new dramas. But fans saw that it was plagiarism, and someone must have taken off the powder.

The final link is distribution, which is purely data-driven. What kind of content, how much it costs, what kind of people like it, how much he pays, how to distribute it to his audience, all can be learned from the data.

However, the creation of content is fundamental and the starting point for subsequent promotion and distribution. Video sites that are purely data-driven will not make content at all. At this point, it can't be solved by Internet thinking. It may be solved by burning money, but the cost will be even greater, so that it will never be able to break even.

This is the first “grey rhinoceros” in the video content industry. The video website can only make decisions through data. The data cannot directly create content, and the data cannot change the user's stickiness to the content. This is something that everyone is too accustomed to, but it is the weakness of the video site's extremely homemade content.

The second "Grey Rhino": the Operation Mode of "buffet"

The initial content industry is like opening a restaurant. The content is a dish. Those dishes that are sold well are signature dishes, which are constantly refined and refined; those that sell well are cheap dishes, which are continuously supplied, but they are not taken too seriously; those that are not sold well are not sold. This dish can be understood as a big IP. Some big IPs have existed for hundreds of years. At that time, there was no Internet data at all. It was purely the gambling of the author and the audience, and the gambling won was red.

For example, early Disney, Marvel, DC. In this era, the way to get film and television content is to either follow the arrangements of the TV station, but can not see their favorite movies at any time; or go to buy, rent the disc home to watch, watch what you like.

Later, big data, cost, production, popularity, revenue and so on were calculated and matched, and it was found that opening a cafeteria could maximize profits and not bring dishes to customers, but let them pick them up. All right, let's turn the restaurant into a buffet. The video website is set up. Just one computer, you can watch all your favorite movies. But independent restaurants need a variety of dishes, that is, video sites need a variety of content to attract a variety of users, and eventually lead to a growing demand for content.

Video sites or cafeterias survive by the need for growing traffic, and the need for extremely high user loyalty and stickiness, it is best not to come to your place.

In order to drain, you have to bear the increasing cost of content, because user stickiness is to follow the content, not the brand of the video site. At this time, the video website found that homemade content can control the cost of content, get exclusive content copyright, master content is to master user stickiness, so one after another opened the road of content self-control, that is, at this stage.

The “buffet-style” operating model also leads to a question: how to charge users? The current method is unified charging and single charging, that is, the paid membership system plus the single-set content on-demand charging. Of course, the advertising fee is the advertising party, and the user only needs to watch the advertisement. So in order to promote the average charge - the promotion of the paid membership system. Members can be exempt from advertising. Another advantage of membership system than starting point is that it can lock traffic and enhance user stickiness.

But is this charging model fair? Some people watch everything every day, others just to watch a certain type of video. So some netizens complained with a smile: "just for XX, I opened a XX member for a month." It can be seen that some users still complain about this kind of charging system. And this membership fee can only be set below the waist, because the price is higher than the competitors, traffic goes to others.

Therefore, you can see the membership fee pricing of each video site, monthly members are basically about 30 yuan, the longer the time, the more favorable, the annual fee users are about 40% discount. There is also a continuous payment of 9.9 yuan for the first month, that is, the first month 9.9 yuan experience price, next month automatic original price deduction, experience period is not satisfied, you can cancel the automatic deduction contract at any time. It looks like the video site is losing money, but it doesn't take into account how many new users it has received at a low cost. Maybe users consciously take advantage of a small amount of money to watch a favorite show, and then become a loyal user of the site?

Do you think this is over? The funders behind each website began to strongly support, specializing in the maintenance of established loyalty of high-quality users. For example, Alipay page recharge Youku, 40% discount promotion activities all the year round, the length of time is arbitrary, but also can use ant points to exchange Youku member days, which is more free to choose than a one-time recharge of a year. What loyal users need in their hearts is respect. They really don't care about the tens of yuan a month. Giving them the choice of the length of time is the greatest respect and consolidate the stickiness of users.

However, the reality is that this kind of pricing below the waist is single, and the charging strategy of discounting promotions from time to time causes all video websites to lose the same as ghosts. For those "loyal" users who watch content every day, video sites simply don't make any money. And once the content does not fit their minds, they will be lost immediately. This "loyalty" is not a loyalty to the brand of the website.

Upstream content cost is high, downstream charging model is single, basically a single charge, coupled with the price war between peers, video sites can only lose money. This is the video site homemade content encountered the second "gray rhinoceros", video sites are used to it, but there is no way.

The third Grey Rhino: content Review

On January 9 this year, in order to improve the quality of short video content, to curb the spread of false and harmful content, to create a clear network space, in accordance with relevant national laws and regulations, "Internet Audiovisual Program Service Management Regulations" and "Network Audiovisual Program Contents Review General Rules" , Formulate the "Standard Rules for Network Short Video Content Review". It is also a new regulation for web content, this time the object is short video.

Everyone knows this because the review mechanism is almost accompanied by the establishment and birth of New China. This is a law and regulation. No one can compete. Almost all content production industries and the media industry must be regulated.

For example, in 2000, there was a popular TV drama "The Six Cases of Serious Cases", which was shot in a series of four TV dramas. According to the current standard, it is also considered a big IP. The potential for continued exploration is huge. However, one day I heard that the drama was banned because it may involve leaking the public security organs. Many years later, the first starring teacher Li Chengru revealed the truth on the "Three-Ways" program: At that time, it was thought that it was strictly forbidden. Later, it was discovered that a certain leader had said a little personal thought at a meeting, not a command. Somehow it was passed down as an order, which led to the ban on the show, which was actually a misunderstanding. This delay, a good IP is over.

There are also a number of reasons such as the feudal superstition, the bloody picture, the vulgar content, the excessively revealing humanity, and the like. They are all the guns in the drama, the "Hess of God", "The Remnant", "The Prince", and so on. The online game with a wide range of traffic was taken off the shelf. There are even too strict supervision standards for the fans, but they are useless. Therefore, a large number of dramas and movies have changed their scripts from the scriptwriters, and the quality of the content has dropped and the audience has been lost.

For example, due to anti-feudal superstition, domestic ghost films are basically to the end of the protagonist's mental illness, dreaming, imaginary results. In recent years, the popular tomb theft IP, because of the control of the film and television theme of "stealing graves and excavating tombs", initially circumvented supervision at the end of dreams, causing complaints from the audience. The Wrath of Ghost blowing Lamp, Xiangxi, was set by the story in the Republic of China, bypassing the supervision of tomb theft, and was also well received by the audience.

There are also emergencies in the artist's own situation. Artists who are illegal or morally arrogant are not used, and even the entire work will be affected. Huang Haibo, Wu Xiubo, Fan Bingbing, which is not a big traffic? But all disappeared. The "China Hip-Hop" program group and all members were implicated in the "PG1" incident, and PG1 himself was exposed to a bar in his hometown to sing for a living. Li Xiaoyu intended to come back but was resisted by netizens.

Content review is an insurmountable gap in the content of video websites, and it is also the place with the most shots. Compared with traditional film and television production teams, the novelty of self-made content is often the key to success, but the lack of "sensitivity" and "ideology" leads to failure. Therefore, finding a balance between viewers' love and content review is a "technical activity" that must be mastered by homemade content.

Grey rhinoceros BOSS: data particles are not rough enough to cause flow realisation

What if a show has 1 billion clicks? Copyright owners will immediately shoot the second season, without copyright to follow this way to "high imitation", but the second season or "high imitation drama" suddenly no one saw it. The data show that this type of drama is good. Why didn't anyone watch it? Many producers can't figure out the problem. So the anti-Japanese idol drama a fire Hengdian film and television city is full of "little devils". A well-known screenwriter sighs: "that year, Hengdian was torn up more devils than the eight years of the War of Resistance against Japan combined!"

Why is this show with 1 billion hits? Who really likes this play? Why does she like this play? If she fell in love at the time and liked to watch the tragedy, what if she found her boyfriend like to watch comedy after three months? The data can only tell you that there are 10 billion hits, and the latter questions cannot be answered. This is "the data particles are not rough enough to drive traffic to cash out."

Comprehensive data can reflect a complete, fine data particles, this fine data is calculated in human units. The reality is that the data is divided by various video website platforms, and no video website has enough data to lead to strong productivity. The content industry needs infinite automatic subdivision of data particles and harmonic resonance with the changes of human emotion, interest and human nature in order to lead to productivity. This change is not now, but in the near future, the core is AI 5G, the business model is "takeout" content creation service.

After the era of "restaurant" and "buffet", the next stage of the content industry is the "takeout" operation mode. Based on the data flow support of 5G, a large number of personal customized requirements can be digitized, imported into the cloud database of the content creation platform, and then automatically produced customized content based on AI, such as the artificial face changing technology that has been realized. Individuals can "hire" stars to "make" a movie for themselves, and then this unique "content meal" will only be delivered to someone, not "public." All individuals in need go to a platform to order, which is different from the "buffet" model in that the platform "what to order and what to cook", rather than "pile up all the dishes" for you to choose from.

In the most advanced stage of the "delivery system" operation mode, after the content provider obtains the trust and authorization of the user, it will push the content that the user must like at a fixed time, and the user even omits the process of "ordering". Because all choices are reflected in individual behavior big data. Like Netflix's new online drama Love, death, and Robotics, everyone in the future has his own mechanical assistant who can help him make all his choices.

We have not yet entered the real era of big data, which is the ultimate barrier to video content.

5G+AI gave birth to the ubiquitous data ecological environment. The ecological space of APP was completely disintegrated, which was enough to drive the productivity of the content industry and overcome the obstacle of “grey rhinoceros”. Until then, the user's loyalty will always follow the content itself, and the video website that can't satisfy the user's demand for content will be abandoned by the user without hesitation.

Fortunately, this era does not seem far away, maybe half a century, maybe thirty years. If humans experience a technological explosion during this period, perhaps ten years will suffice.

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