Zhu Yunlai's speech: We have the fastest growing 20 years in Chinese history.


Zhu Yunlai's speech: We have the fastest growing 20 years in Chinese history.

Tiger sniffing Note: this is Zhu Yunlai's 40 years of reform and opening-up keynote speech, "We were born at the right time." Source: Phoenix Finance.

"looking back on the long river of the entire human civilization, 10,000 years of agricultural civilization, and a recorded history in 2000, it was found that the last 20 years were actually the fastest-growing period for us. Originally felt that history is very distant, now found that we were born in time, we born in China's history of the fastest changing 20 years, "Zhu Yunlai a few days ago, in a closed-door speech, such feelings. In this speech, Zhu Yunlai systematically reviewed the economic context of the past 40 years, and made a forward-looking judgment on the development of China and human civilization.

This year is 40 years of reform and opening up. Looking back on the past 40 years, China's economy has achieved fruitful results, the economy as a whole has achieved steady and high-speed growth, the reform of the economic system has steadily advanced, and China's financial sector has become more and more open. China's international competitiveness is becoming stronger and stronger, and China continues to promote the international voice of a community with a shared future for mankind.

Looking ahead, China will start a new round of reform and opening up. “How to go in the future? Although we have achieved great results, we still face many potential problems, including debt, hidden financial risks, high housing prices and investment mismatches. We must constantly explore innovation to be able to systematically Promote human civilization and improve everyone's life," Zhu Yun said.

What do you think of the past 40 years? By analyzing the perspective of 40 years of macroeconomic development, Zhu Yunlai pays tribute to the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, and reflects on China's economy from various dimensions such as financial market, urban development, wealth management, future population, international expansion, world market, and civilization process. At the same time, look forward to the future development potential of the Chinese economy in the international market.

Turning to the overall economic situation in the past four decades, Zhu Yunlai pointed out: judging from the growth rate of GDP, nominal GDP has grown at an average rate of 15% a year over the past 40 years, and the average growth rate of real GDP has been 9.5%, close to 10%. This is also the highest growth rate in the world. Compared with the most developed countries in the west, the highest GDP growth rate was around 6-7 percent in the 1960s, and has been down since then, with normal growth of about 2 percent to 3 percent.

However, Zhu Yunlai also mentioned that “the assets and debts are ignored behind the growth of high-speed GDP”. He pointed out that asset and debt growth is almost twice the growth rate of output, meaning that debt is expanding at twice the growth rate of GDP. "China's total GDP of more than 80 trillion in 2017, the stock of debt at the end of the year is almost 600 trillion, compared with other countries in the world, the ratio is very high."

When talking about the changes in the economic structure, Zhu Yunlai said, "In the early stage of development in the past four decades, the consumption in the output value accounted for a relatively high proportion, reaching a maximum of about 55%. In 2004, investment increased, consumption fell, and investment became the main economy. Driving components. In recent years, the proportion of investment has declined but is still higher than consumption. Exports first increase and then fall back to the original point."

In order to more clearly show China's capital assets, Zhu Yunlai made a China balance sheet, regarded China as a "China Group Co., Ltd.", and consolidated all economic activity units in the country. Zhu Yunlai pointed out that in recent years, China's economic profit rate and return rate are low, yield and turnover rate continue to decline, and leverage ratio continues to rise. In the future, we should strengthen efficiency constraints, improve economic efficiency, quantify external benefits, and measure overall income.

Zhu Yunlai analyzed that “'China Group Co., Ltd.' has 900 trillion assets (excluding depreciation), of which there are more than 600 trillion in liabilities and about 300 trillion yuan of wealth accumulation. The Chinese economy is moving towards high quality development, You need to think about how to manage this 264 trillion assets and maximize its benefits."

The report of the 19th CPC National Congress made a new discussion on the main contradictions of Chinese society in the new era, and proposed that China's economy should transform to high-quality development, truly transcend the "middle income trap" and achieve a true rise. Zhu Yunlai believes that if, according to the principle of "performance ranking, end-to-end reduction", the worst performing entities of economic entities are reduced through verification, debt cancellation, and liquidation of profits and losses, the Chinese economy can be lightly loaded. The overall efficiency is improved automatically, the transformation from "L" to "V" is realized, the situation of high growth is returned, and the transformation of high quality development is realized.

In his speech, Zhu Yunlai expressed his views on the current hot discussion of high housing prices. Zhu Yunlai believes that the problem of high housing prices can not be solved by limiting the property market, high prices behind the high-speed currency inflow phenomenon. "it is a natural phenomenon that where the return on investment is high, the money will flow. If we want to restructure the economy, the most important thing is to control the size of the loan. "

Talking about the "urban anxiety" that the public cares about, Zhu Yunlai analyzed that the scope of urban people's activities is about 122,000 square kilometers, accounting for 1.3% of our total land area. He believes that cities also have life. "We need to plan rationally and control costs while planning."

Looking forward to the future, Zhu Yunlai believes that future opportunities lie in scientific and technological innovation, "science and technology with independent R & D and their own manufacturing capabilities are truly world-class competitiveness." Only advanced science and technology can significantly increase per capita output and cross the 'middle-income trap'. "

Zhu Yunlai believes that China has an unparalleled comparative advantage in terms of human resources, economic scale, industrial layout and scientific and technological potential. China with transformation and upgrading can make important contributions to world economic development, international affairs balance and world peace maintenance.

The following is the full text of Zhu Yunlai's speech:

It is a great honor to be invited by the Phoenix to participate in today's discussion. Today's theme is "A tribute to the 40 years of Reform and opening-up." I would like to share some of my views with the topics of wealth management, urban anxiety, scientific and technological innovation, and world markets, as well as a macro-presentation of the 40-year development process.

The "four Troika" driving China's economy

Photo: China's economy - structure / contribution Zhu Yunlai

This picture reflects the general economic development of the past 40 years. The vertical left axis represents the total value of economic GDP. It can be seen from the figure that the Chinese economy has experienced a rapid growth process. At the same time, we can see from the chart the changes in the economic structure, including investment, consumption, government spending and net export troika data. In the past, we have been talking about “troika”, which refers to consumption and government expenditure as consumption, but from the perspective of market economics, government expenditure is determined by legislation, not directly related to the market, and does not change with economic changes. Therefore, it is more meaningful to divide the economic structure into four parts.

From this chart, it can be seen that in the early stage of development in the past 40 years, the consumption of output value was relatively high, reaching a maximum of about 55%. Since 2004, investment has increased and consumption has declined, and investment has become the main economic driving element. In recent years, the proportion of investment has declined but still higher than consumption. The export increases first and then drops, and returns to the origin.

In terms of GDP growth, nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of 15 percent over the past 40 years, while real GDP growth averaged 9.5 percent, close to 10 percent, the highest in the world. Compared with the most developed countries in the west, the highest GDP growth rate was around 6-7 percent in the 1960s, and has been down since then, with normal growth of about 2 percent to 3 percent.

The rapid growth of the economy is accompanied by the rapid expansion of debt

When we look at GDP growth, we may have overlooked the growth rate of total assets, and our assets continue to grow at a rate of nearly 20%. From 1978 to 2018, the average growth rate of assets (original value) was 16.6%. Since 1992, assets have shown a rapid growth trend, and assets are almost twice the rate of output growth. In addition, our debt is also expanding at twice the growth rate of GDP in the process.

what does this mean? More and more houses, more and more factories, more and more facilities, may lead to excess, so we must "three go and one down" to go to capacity, go to inventory, deleverage, and reduce costs.

Just now a few guests talked about the real estate market and leverage why the rapid growth. In pursuit of high speed, we invest heavily, even through debt or leverage to stimulate investment, some of which fall into the real estate market and build a large number of houses. We can see how much money we send out. M2 is the broad sense of money, which is the amount of money that can be used to pay for the total amount of money that can be used to pay for it. Director Gangsheng mentioned that at present, the broad-based currency has reached more than 180 trillion, and this year it has increased by more than 10 trillion.

(Sheng Songcheng added: an increase of 19 trillion this year. However, M2 growth this year has reached its slowest rate in 20 years. M2 peaked at 29.7 percent in November 2009, when the 4 trillion stimulus package was introduced. In 2017, M2 growth slowed to 8.1 percent year-on-year. It grew 8% in June and is now between 8.3% and 8.5%.

Yes.. As can be seen from the debt growth curve, growth is indeed falling, but the problem is that the amount is accumulated and the base is already very high.

In 2017, our total GDP of more than 80 trillion yuan, the stock of debt at the end of the year is almost 600 trillion, compared with other countries in the world, the ratio is very high. Behind the average growth rate of 10% in the past 40 years, assets and debts have grown at a higher rate.

Half of economic output is used for investment

The following picture shows the relationship between output and assets more clearly. The accumulation of a large number of assets and stocks has made the operation more and more difficult, because the production capacity may be excessive, and it is even more difficult to maintain the income.

Figure: China's economy - investment / inertia

This picture reflects the above problem. There are three distinct lines in the picture, and the green line represents the completion ratio, which is the ratio of the total construction scale to the total output value. From 1995 to 2002, the ratio was between 100% and 110%. From 2003 to 2016, it increased continuously, and in 2017 it even reached 240%. The popular construction project refers to the covered community and the high-speed railway.

And what kind of support does the building depend on? Building-to-loan ratio, that is, the scale of construction depends on credit support. These years, the loan ratio is basically less than 100%. See again output ratio, that is, asset to output ratio. After 2003, maintained at about 50%, that is, half of the economic output spent on investment. This corresponds to the 50% ratio of investment to GDP reflected in the first chart.

Reducing Investment contraction loans and promoting a virtuous cycle of economy

I made a balance sheet for China. Regard all activities in China as "China Group Company", combine it with report forms, and what should its final report be like? In recent years, China's economy has seen lower profit margins, lower returns, lower yields, lower turnover, higher leverage and lower returns on equity. This reminds us of the "L" of the economy. In late 2012, we proposed a shift in growth and started moving into the L-shape in 2015, which is also reflected in the chart.

In the face of such a situation, what to do? Further reform. If we look at the ratio of consumption as a total consumption, as the food, clothing, housing, and basic public services that are essential to our lives, how much do they account for in GDP? About half of GDP.

On the other hand, does it mean that with this half, you can ensure that your living conditions are not worse or flatter than before? The remaining 50% are investments, there are future prospects for investment, there is no such good prospect, and there is no need to rush to invest. So we also have ample room to make adjustments. Otherwise, if we are to pursue higher GDP growth, we can only increase investment, and investment may intensify the rapid expansion of assets mentioned above and the rapid expansion of debt. Debt expansion also means that the degree of economic risk is greatly enhanced.

Figure: economic Adjustment-Space / Logic Zhu Yunlai

From the data point of view, from 1978 to 2017, the investment-to-output ratio overall increased and the consumption-to-output ratio overall decreased, from 53% in 1981 to 36% in 2010, and then slowly increased to 39% in 2017. In 2017, investment accounted for 46% of the total value. On the premise of ensuring the basic needs of life, there is still enough room to reduce investment and achieve economic adjustment.

The traditional growth model is usually project-driven: “project-loan-investment-growth”, which often leads to “excess-inefficient-weak-stimulus”, and “subtraction” within the space that can be tolerated by the reforms mentioned above. Reducing investment, shrinking loans, and reducing risks have increased market efficiency and prompted the economy to enter a virtuous circle.

Consideration can be given to reducing some unprofitable investments

Figure: Economic adjustment - methods / effects

How can I adjust? If we put all the projects under construction in order of income, according to the principle of “performance sequencing, end nuclear reduction”, those that are ranked last may be projects with low losses or low returns. If I remove it discretionally and reduce it, then we can reduce the total loan size after the reduction, because the loan is the process of creating money. Each new loan will add a new currency, and in turn, each loan will be recovered. The currency is reduced by a currency.

Although the plant was still in production at the time of the reduction project, it was actually a loss, and although it also brought in GDP, the data might not be that important. If long-term potential losses, but also pull down the social average, may lead to a certain downside in GDP.

After the write-off, the average efficiency of the remaining enterprises is higher than that before the original non-write-off, so its income will be increased. If the debt is written off and the gains and losses are liquidated, the Chinese economy will be able to load up lightly. The overall efficiency "automatic" promotion, realizes "L" to "V" the transformation, returns to the high efficiency growth situation.

This is my simple consideration, and of course I have made some measurements. For example, the stock market, because stocks have an open reporting system, there is no discussion here.

If there is a space for reform and the concrete method of reform, the effect of reform can be expected to a certain extent. Its advantage is that it can make an adjustment according to the actual situation, cut it off a little more when there are conditions, and put it aside for the time being without the conditions, but the overall thinking remains unchanged, which is conducive to improving the overall economic efficiency. Finally out of a more market-based state of high-quality economic growth.

Pay attention to invisible financial risks

We mentioned just now that China has experienced considerable rapid growth over the past four decades, but the implicit problem is a rapid increase in assets and debt, as can be seen from a summary of the financial markets. The vertical column in the figure, which represents the overall debt situation, has now reached more than 600 trillion, and the curve is based on available data.

From 1952 to 2017, China's financial products totaled 669 trillion yuan, including banking products 399 trillion, securities 87 trillion, insurance 15 trillion, fund 11 trillion, and others 88 trillion. In addition, there are 68 trillion invisible financial products. Between 1992 and 2017, the proportion of traditional banking products in financial products declined year by year, from 77 percent to 60 percent, rather than the faster growth of traditional products, securities in 2017. Insurance and funds together account for 17%, other categories and hidden products together account for 23%.

To give an example, a person's average monthly income is 30,000, and the cost of living, living, and living is 20,000. The remaining 10,000 deposits into the bank. These balances become a sign of personal wealth. The people's savings rate is constantly rising, symbolizing the constant national economy. development of.

On the other hand, what do banks do with this money? It can lend and generate new loans. Especially after the market economy, the strength of banking activities is much greater than the original, made a variety of loans. As can be seen from the figure, since 1992, a large number of loans have emerged, and now the scale of construction has doubled production value. The process of lending creates money, so money seems to have doubled beyond the economy itself. So far, the banks still account for a large portion of the assets, securities, insurance, despite the rapid growth, but the proportion of the opposite is still very small.

There is also a noteworthy, "other" class data on this picture. What is “other”? I flattened the physical and financial parts of the flow statement, and calculated a hidden finance. This invisible finance is now at the level of several trillions. Invisible finance has increased rapidly since 2009, and it may contain many assets with higher risks. How to deal with this part of the content, this challenge is also very big.

Behind the high housing prices is the rapid growth of the total money supply.

Just now, the guests have been discussing the issue of "the house does not live". I think Professor Chen makes a lot of sense. The real estate prices are not necessarily all speculated. M2 continues to increase, adding 2 trillion yuan per month. What would you buy with this money, the stock market and the property market? The stock market performance was still relatively good, but the current performance is not good, the money is more to the property market.

The problem of high house prices can not be solved by limiting the property market. Behind the high house prices is the rapid growth of the total amount of money supply. Take ordinary people as an example, it is nothing more than where the returns are high and where the stock market is put on the stock market. Several major falls in history have also given rise to worries, and the house is something that can be seen and touched, and the price is still rising, so, Investing in real estate is a good choice.

If we want to adjust the economic structure, the most important thing is to control the scale of the loan. Monetary loan investment is a relatively long-term process, and the cycle may be five or even ten years. At the beginning, companies may not feel the pressure and continue to increase investment. However, if they find that they still do not make money after three or five years of investment, even if they have to pay the interest, it will be more difficult to adjust.

Urban development, in the middle is our map, the famous three major rivers are in the provincial capital cities. In such an area, there are many such cities, and there are about 600 cities and prefecture-level cities. This is more than 1,500 county towns. According to the average urban conditions of these counties, all the areas can be calculated. According to this specific statistics, China is 9.65 million square kilometers, and the place where people actually live is the 260,000 square kilometers. Half of the 260,000 miles are villages, with more than 500,000 administrative villages and more than 2.5 million natural villages.

When we talk about urbanization, we actually use urbanization. There is still a certain distance between the town and the city. Except for the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the towns in other places are basically towns, not to the level of the county, let alone County-level city or prefecture-level city. With such a large piece of land, the scope of our urban people's activities is actually 122,000 square kilometers, accounting for 1.3% of our total land area. If you can count the calculations again, how many years have we invested in fixed assets in history? What is the average per square meter?

If the total area of ​​houses built in cities and towns is laid on the ground, it only accounts for 29% of the urban area. Not to mention our so-called floor area ratio, we build a high-rise building, occupying a 3,000 square meter, but covering 10 floors, 20 The layers, each floor is 3,000 square meters, so the total footprint is smaller. In other words, in fact, your 120,000 square kilometers is still very loose. If we don't have the understanding and imagination of such a space concept, it may be too abstract for us to talk about urban development.

Now, there is one of the most important problems in the city that we ignore, what is it? Cities are alive. First of all, we need reasonable planning, systematic infrastructure, and so on. We may all be doing it now, but costing is also very important. Especially when a higher GDP is needed, a lot of money is invested in infrastructure, which actually increases the cost of the city. A basic economic concept is that you have to be able to recover costs from these infrastructure projects. It brings more benefits than you invest, and you need to have an effective cost control, system costing.

In addition, people living in the city, the core is what is the economic structure of the city, what people live, what is the income of work, and how the cost of living. If the cost is much higher than the income and you want to live in this city, you can't live. Therefore, the urban problem is also an economic issue. From the very beginning, there must be a macro control. If you add flowers everywhere, each city will copy the same thing, you may not be able to recruit people, because each industry has certain necessary factors to rely on, these supporting factors need you to at least roughly connect it It will have a hope, it is about the city.

Let us take a look at wealth management. As in the case of China's balance sheet just now, "China Holdings Limited" has 900 trillion of its assets less depreciation, 600 trillion of its liabilities and 300 trillion of its interests. How do these interests be distributed?. A total of 264 trillion of the wealth accumulated, including state-owned industries, non-public industries, financial state-owned, financial non-public, government and household parts. Statistically, the size of some small and micro-enterprises is too small, so it belongs to household data.

China's economy must move toward high-quality development. We hope that the economy will have better growth. We need to think about how to manage this 264 trillion assets and maximize its benefits. Investment management is getting better and better, economic development will be better and better, and the quality of life and even the freedom of wealth will be higher and higher.

Future opportunities in Scientific and technological Innovation

Facing the future, there is no doubt about the need for scientific and technological innovation. At the same time of large-scale economic growth, our technical content has yet to be improved, many of which we have made the final product, but in the process a large number of imported original parts, including materials, equipment, components and so on, are used in the process. But it's still a step forward. At the beginning of the reform, we couldn't even do that, and now we've done it through years of hard work. In the long run, this should be the first step, a positive push down and a second step, that is, when can truly achieve independent R & D. This is actually the same as doing decoration, you said that decoration is my own design, in fact, with the help of designers, construction is also to ask others to do, so you can not say that you really have the technical level of home furnishings.

The so-called middle-income trap, in fact, is not an invisible glass roof, but how much capacity you have to do high-value-added products, high value-added means high income, this is high income. If the technical content of this product is very low, it can not be high value added, so it can not be high income, this is still relatively simple.

Looking at the comparison of the maps, we will know that if we want to develop technology, we must have intellectual property rights and no property rights. This is very difficult to do. But intellectual property does not mean that you make a lot of patents. Sometimes, if you send too many patents, it will have a negative effect, especially if you have a very low level of patents. Therefore, it must be a genuine patent, and there is a patent with a technical content.

I mentioned technical auditing. We now have the ability to make cars and the ability to make airplanes, but how many of them are made by you? We do a technical audit, which key technologies you have mastered, and which ones are not mastered for the time being. This is our future goal to strive for a better direction.

In addition to patent standards, technology needs to have a few elements to be able to systematically promote growth. At that time, China organized "two bombs and one star," this kind of scientific and technological development is to seize talent, systematic progress, in fact, we Chinese people can still do it. With independent research and development, their own manufacturing capacity of science and technology is truly world-class competitiveness. Only advanced science and technology can significantly increase per capita output, across the "middle-income trap."

I made a comparison between real estate investment and research funding. China's investment in scientific research and foreign investment is much smaller than that in real estate. From 2003 to 2017, the cumulative investment in real estate in China was 111 trillion yuan, and the cumulative investment in scientific research in the same period was 12 trillion, which is only 12% of the investment in real estate. Over the same period, the cumulative outbound investment of 7 trillion, only 7% of real estate investment. This is what we need to think about. Investment in real estate is growing rapidly, but investment in science and technology is not strong.

Population growth is in a process of evolution near its peak

Figure: Future Population - China / World Zhu Yunlai

Let’s talk about the population issue. This curve reflects the changes in the population. It can be seen from the figure that the current population is in the ascending phase and is in the process of evolution near the apex. The vertex is estimated to not reach 1.5 billion, and then it will face a decline. China's actual population in 2000 was 1.2 billion. According to the model of China Life Insurance Industry Life Table, the Chinese population will have an inflection point after 2024. Since the fertility rate has not increased significantly since the release of the “Comprehensive Two-Child” policy at the end of 2015, neither of the two scenarios has made too high a hypothesis about the policy-induced fertility growth. Considering the influence of the two-child policy, the inflection point of the negative population growth has been postponed, but The overall impact is small.

At the same time, this figure is also a reference for the real estate market. There are already a lot of houses, and the population is getting less and less. Of course, if it is improved or requires special real estate, there may still be demand. However, the housing of our urban residents has now reached 30 billion square meters, and this number is huge. It's not the annual sales of 10 billion yuan we talked about, the inventory problem of 700 million yuan, but the problem of the entire 30 billion stocks. Anything worthwhile requires two factors, the first one needs it, and the second one can afford it.

Figure: Future Population - World Zhu Yunlai

In the picture, the world's population, with the exception of Africa, is growing rapidly, and the population of several continents, like China, is declining, which is actually one of the manifestations of the gradual ageing of the world's population. Of course, this may also be the inevitable result of social progress to a certain extent, but its possible impact is noteworthy. In the long run, China should actively promote its greater participation in world economic activities, especially in Africa's future development.

Globalization is good for the world economy

Photo: international pattern Zhu Yunlai

If we look at the current international situation, the yellow part of the picture is more than 60 Belt and Road countries, the blue part is mainly the OECD, the red part is a member of the Western Economic Cooperation Organization, and we are also crisscrossed members of Belt and Road. The green parts add up to the G-20 concept, but two larger ones are Brazil and Argentina. What we need to consider now is whether the space to be put in place is to abandon the other blue market, or whether we hope to resolve the problem through negotiation and negotiation.

I made a simple calculation, if the countries along the Belt and Road are adjusted according to the 10% frugality principle, what is the result. For example, to build a new electric field, we sacrifice a little and save 10%, so that we can use this part of the money to invest in electric fields. After investing in this electric field, it will bring more convenience to our lives, to our industry. Develop a better foundation. The macro economy is mainly to eliminate, invest, open, and import, to save government spending, and to replace more effective investment. This will save about 150 million US dollars, which is estimated to be 10 trillion yuan according to the exchange rate of 7. It is worth thinking about and opening up. China is now 83 trillion yuan of GDP, and 10 trillion yuan means much higher than the growth rate of 7% of the economy, which is equivalent to the potential of 10% growth.

Some countries are already doing such a thing, such as Africa, we still have an advantage in order to open up this market, because we are doing systematic engineering and building infrastructure, and we have a relative advantage over other advanced countries. This may require a long-term systematic development, as these Belt and Road countries, combined, account for twice the population of China and twice our GDP. For Chinese enterprises, this is a potential market that can be developed.

Figure: World Development Zhu Yunlai

Look at the world's development. In the figure, the node I selected was 1945, mainly because the longest period of peace and the fastest growth period after the Second World War. How long can the world peace last? I can’t say it now, but it can be seen that from the concept of globalization first introduced in 1985 to the WTO in 1995, and after the financial crisis, the world economy still has a very rapid development. Population development has been relatively peaceful. Almost every year, the world's average annual growth rate of 1%, the economy, trade and even foreign investment are growing rapidly. This picture also reflects that the world's per capita output value is rapidly increasing, so globalization is for the economy. The benefits.

But now why do so many people object, such as the United States? Because of the distribution problem. The benefits of globalization may be earned by businesses, and people may lose their jobs as a result.

We were born at the right time to witness the fastest growth of the economy in the past 20 years.

Figure: Civilization Process Zhu Yunlai

Finally, in the longer term, from the first year AD to the present, the world claims to have a history of 2000, but the real rapid development was after 1800, that is, after the Industrial Revolution. Agricultural civilization lasted for nearly 10,000 years, but its average growth was only 0.5%. Agricultural civilization was mainly land, cultivated land, that is, hoe and plough. At that time, China was really the world's largest country. At that time, India's GDP and production capacity were sometimes a little higher than China's, but it was not as continuous as China's. China has been a unified central power since Qin Shihuang, and India has had many divisive periods in its history.

We were very successful, but we entered the industrial age in 1840, and with new products and technologies, China was vulnerable. Until modern times, the education, industrialization, and reform and opening up of the system have made us join the tide of the world. But from a technical point of view, are we facing new challenges now? How did the city develop? In fact, it is to adapt to the needs of industrial development. In the past, rural areas and villages were suitable for agricultural production, but what is the future production method? It may be a number. In fact, digitization not only contains information but also programs. What is the program? The program is said to be artificial intelligence, and all algorithms are included in the numbers. Can our society leave these numbers and computer equipment and network equipment related to digital? I think it probably can't be.

Looking back at the long river of human civilization, the 10,000-year agricultural civilization, and the record history of two thousand years, we found that the last 20 years is the fastest period of our development. It turned out that history is very far away. Now we find that we are born at the right time. We have the fastest change in Chinese history for 20 years. How to go in the future? Although we have achieved great results, we still face many potential problems, including debt, hidden financial risks, high housing prices and investment mismatches. We must constantly explore and innovate in order to systematically enhance human civilization and improve everyone's life.

China has incomparable comparative advantages in terms of human resources, economic scale, industrial layout and scientific and technological potential, etc. China can make important contributions to world economic development, balance of international affairs and maintenance of world peace through transformation and upgrading.

* the article is the author's independent point of view, does not represent the position of Tiger olfactory net this article is published by Phoenix Finance and authorized Tiger olfactory net, and edited by Tiger olfactory Network. Reprint this article with the permission of the author, and please attach the source (Tiger sniffing net) and this page link. Original link: https://www.huxiu.com/article/273915.html

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