Author | Pizza
Cover | Visual China
Since April, Bitcoin prices have bottomed out and the mining market has recovered again.
Today's mining machine market, the official network is broken, the spot is tight, the future runs rampant. Used as a "scrap iron"-selling second-hand mining machine, it was once again a hand-in-hand.
And the miners also launched a mining machine battle. Domestic miners and Iranian miners are rushing to throw higher purchase prices and grab mining machines.
Yang Zuxing, founder of Shenma Mining Machinery, revealed that the current lack of capacity of the mining machine is due to the limited wafer production capacity of the foundry.
The problem may not get better until next year. The battle of the mining machine may have only just begun.
01 “grab” mining machine
In April this year, the long-lost bitcoin market changed. In just one month in April, bitcoin prices rose by 29.6% and regained $5,000.
Countless mining machines sleeping in bear markets have since begun to "resurrect".
This is evident in the trend of Bitcoin's entire network of computing power - after April, Bitcoin's overall network computing power rose sharply, and reached a new high on July 9, reaching 64EH / s.
But the skyrocketing powers have caused the miners to fall into a "mine machine battle." The first shot was made by Iranian miners thousands of miles away.
Cheng Mei is one of the relatives of the war.
"In early April of this year, a hydropower station in Chengdu contacted me, saying that there are 6000 Shenma M3 mining machines that need to be shot." Cheng Mei recalled.
It was the eve of the Bitcoin price rally. At that time, the revenue of Shenma M3 mining machine was close to zero, and the price of second-hand mining machine was also at an all-time low. And one of Cheng Mei's customers is hoping to copy the bottom at a low price at this time.
"The market price at that time was 260 yuan to 280 yuan." Cheng Mei said, "I see their machines are relatively new, they gave a quotation of 290 yuan." She hopes to quickly win the supply of goods through high prices. The power station also agreed to come down.
However, when Cheng Mei and her clients rushed to Chengdu to see the goods, the power station hesitated, and even directly refused Cheng Mei’s deposit.
Cheng Mei realized at this time that the shipment might be eyeing. After 10 days of hardship, the power station told her that the goods were gone and were bought by a mining machine dealer in Shenzhen.
"I later learned that people in Shenzhen bought the machines at a price higher than the market price of 80 yuan and prepared to sell them to Iranian miners. At that time, Shenzhen counterparts had orders from Iran. Who took them? Whoever has the opportunity to make money," Cheng Mei said. At that time, only Iranian miners could afford high prices because of the price advantage.
Since then, Bitcoin mining has once again become profitable with the rise of Bitcoin and the arrival of the Sichuan Fengshui period. The battle for mining machines among domestic miners has also intensified.
In any case, the power station that sold the machine had no idea that, just two months later, the market price of the second-hand Shenma M3 mining machine broke through 1,000 yuan.
"compared with the domestic, the total number of mining machines in Iran is still much smaller." Iranian miner Lao he told a block chain, "by contrast, there have been a lot of new mines in the country recently, and the mining machines are not yet full." The competition for the domestic mining machinery market may be even more intense. "
02 in short supply
As the old saying goes, today, the domestic mining machine market is in a state of difficulty.
“The price of second-hand mining machines is several times that of the beginning of the year. The spot price of new mining machines has doubled the official website price. Some models of new mining machines have been released until November.” Miner Chen Hanping told a block. chain.
In his view, today's mining market seems to be back to its hottest time in 2017.
But just six months ago, the mining market was still depressed.
Last December, the mining machine market reached freezing point. Many mining machines represented by Ant S 9 turn off the machine in a large area. There are even rumors that many mines are selling machines at scrap iron prices.
At that time, an ant Lite coin mining machine L3+ with official power supply even fell to 230 yuan. Chen Hanping has a deep memory of this.
"What is the concept of L3+ for 230 yuan? The official power supply is about 80 yuan. Calculated, a mining machine is less than 150 yuan." Chen Hanping said, "It is equivalent to buying a power supply to the mine."
At that time, the price of Litecoin also fell to a historical low of $22, a drop of 82.4% from the highest point.
"our electricity bill is more than 20 cents, and the daily income of an L 3 is only a few cents." Chen Hanping recalled, "those who use 30 cents of electricity bills, turn on the cost of losing money."
At that time, he calculated the recovery cycle of L 3 at 150 yuan mining machine price-as long as the price of Leyte currency warmed up, the daily income reached 1 yuan, and he could achieve it in five months.
With this mentality, Chen Hanping smashed 500 sets of Wright coin mining machines. "Who can think that the price of the coins has really risen."
When Bitcoin prices exceeded $10000, miners leaving the bear market returned. And the price of mining machine, also day by day.
"In the past, a L3+ official power was seventy or eighty. Now it is three or four hundred, and it has more than quadrupled. There were more than two hundred L3+ mining machines, which sold for a thousand in the previous period." Chen Hanping told a blockchain.
He roughly calculated it and found that he had earned three times the L3+ mining machine he bought last year. In addition to the Litecoin that he has dug in the past six months, he has achieved eight or nine times the gains.
Bitcoin's ore market is even more crazy.
In the mining machine sales page of Bitcoin, except for the ant S9 Hydro, all other types of mining machines are sold out.
Bit Continental Mining Machine Sales Page
This picture is a good illustration of the current situation of the mining machine market. More than bit mainland, Shenma, core movement and other mining machine manufacturers of the mining machine, are in a state of outage.
“When the core T2T was just launched, the spot price was only 4,000 yuan.” Chen Hanping said, “The price is now more than 9,000 yuan, and it will take a month to ship.”
Unable to buy the spot, the anxious miners had to switch to second-hand mining machines. The ant mining machine S9, once sold as “scrap iron”, has re-entered the miners’ vision.
The data of fish ponds show that the daily net income of ant mining machine S9J, which is 14.5T, is 28.6 yuan when the electricity price is 0.27 yuan / degree. The second-hand S 9 mining machine has become a baby again.
"The second-hand S9 mining machine has a minimum of more than 600 yuan, and it also carries official electricity. It can't be sold at all." Chen Hanping said. "At that time, I bought the second-hand S9, I can pick the machine, pick up the power, and I can't accept the power."
"it's different now. Now a second-hand S9 has risen to 2500 yuan to 3000 yuan." He felt with emotion.
03 Capacity bottleneck
In addition to the rise in the price of the currency, another important reason for the shortage of the mining machine is the insufficient capacity of the new mining machine.
"In terms of the current market, as long as the mining machine is in stock, the price will double." Chen Hanping said, "No manufacturer will be stupid enough to play hunger marketing, and there is no sale."
“The root cause of insufficient production capacity of the mining machine is insufficient wafer production capacity.” Yang Zuxing, founder of Shenma Mining Machinery, expressed his interest in a blockchain.
In the chip industry, chips are cut and packaged by wafer. The chip manufacturers represented by TSMC are called wafer factories in the industry. In addition to self-research chips, they also have chip production capacity, and provide chip contract production services.
The material wafer for the production of chips
In the mining industry, manufacturers that only design their own chips and do not have the chip production capacity will hand over the chips to the foundry of TSMC. In the chip industry, such companies are known as fabless.
Obviously, the asset model of the wafer factory is lighter and the operation is more flexible. But at the same time, the production cycle of its chip is limited by wafer factory.
Since 2019, the Bitcoin miner entered the 7nm era, and the capacity of the wafer factory allowed the production of mining chips to see the elbow. The chip is the heart of the ore machine, which seriously restricts the capacity of the ore machine.
By the end of this year, the capacity of the wafer is very tight, "Mr. Yang said. In other words, up to the beginning of next year, the capacity of a new 7-nm miner would be very limited.
In addition, Intel withdrew from the wafer contract business at the end of 2018, laying the groundwork for mining capacity.
Ai Si community sponsor Zeng Ge has said that once Intel withdraws from the foundry business, TSMC will absorb more orders for chip foundry, and this will continue to squeeze the capacity of mining chips.
He believes that TSMC will give priority to the traditional chip business, and send the miner's chip to the sub-optimal process 10nm, 12nm.
The commercial era of 5G and AI is coming soon, and companies such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, Huawei HiSilicon will enter the 7nm chip market. The production capacity of the mining machine chip inside TSMC will be further squeezed.
Less than a year later, Bitcoin will usher in a new round of production cuts. This means that the mining unit's calculation power, the amount of bitcoin dug in unit time will be halved.
Therefore, some people think that the major mining machinery manufacturers will suspend or even stop the next generation of mining machinery research and development work, and instead expand the existing mining capacity.
On this issue, Mr. Yang said he had the opportunity to continue to develop a next-generation mine.
"because the price of the currency will rise." Yang Zuoxing said. The miner's legal currency return will still be maintained at a certain level.
Lao Zhao, who is close to a mining machine manufacturer, also believes that major manufacturers will continue to develop the next generation of mining machines.
"Without innovation, it will die, and after half the production of bitcoin is cut by half, a more powerful mine will be able to grab a bit of bitcoin from a small miner's hand, and the old mine will certainly be phased out." old Zhao said.
The essence of this mining machine war is the battle for bitcoin wealth. The soldiers have entered the scene and they have heard the horn.
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