4G changes life, 5G changes society.
To this day, no one will doubt the changes that 5G will bring. The Internet of Things, unmanned driving, VR... The emerging technologies that it has spawned are constantly refreshing people's imagination of a better life in the future.
Whether it's CES, in January, MWC, in February or AWE, in March, 5G must be the most frequent word for technology-related conferences.
Operators, network equipment manufacturers, terminal manufacturers. 5G slogans can be seen everywhere, a war on 5G has begun.
Some people are willing to call the 5G transformation "Thomasm change" by Thomas Kuhn: there are still many immaturity in this kind of change, even less than the stability of the previous generation technology, but in the long run, it can promote the transformation of science and let communication Open a new chapter, that is, change the world.
People can't help but wonder: What are the advantages of 5G? Which industries will bring about disruptive changes? What is the change in tariffs compared to 4G?
At this time, Sina 5G invited Wang Jianzhou, former chairman of China Mobile and senior adviser to the Global Mobile Communications Association, to give you an in-depth interpretation.
In Wang Jianzhou's view, folding screen is a turning point for smartphones. In addition to structural changes, the deeper significance is that it removes the boundary between tablets and smartphones, and the integration of the two will lead to more new features. This is the meaning of folding screen.
At the same time, the difficulty of folding screen is not on the screen, but in the bottom plate and model, after changing to plastic material, it will involve the entire supply chain. "This is not solved by the electronics industry. This involves the chemical, chemical, and polymer industries. and many more".
On the issue of fees that consumers value more, Wang Jianzhou said, first, according to experience, 2G to 3G, 3G to 4G, each upgrade will drop once, the more advanced the technology, the lower the unit cost. Second, it can be predicted that the price of units will definitely decline after changing from 4G to 5G, that is, the price of each G traffic will definitely drop, which is certain.
In addition, as the former chairman of China Mobile, Wang Jianzhou also made some suggestions for operators.
He believes that in the next development, operators should learn Internet companies, combine the application of the network with the basic network, and reach more user groups. "In addition, I also propose that 5G network and resource sharing will produce very good results. solution".
talking and folding screen
The line between the flat and the cell phone is broken, but the difficulty is not on the screen
Sina Technology: The concept of 5G has continued for many years. Why did it break out this year?
Wang Jianzhou: Take MWC as an example. I go every year, and every time I have different feelings. In February of 2013, I first heard the concept of 5G on MWC, and I will continue to make statements and updates every year. The biggest feature of this year, I think it is a 5G demonstration, it is a demonstration under the Internet, which proves that there are commercial products.
I personally have the deepest impressions of two booths. The first is a remotely driven car. A car is placed on the square in the suburbs. I can drive on the screen. This is a real-time operation experience, which proves 5G. Use has become more and more mature.
The second is a folding screen phone. In fact, I have seen the folding screen in 5 years. At that time, it was a prototype. Every year, I would ask if the manufacturer's mobile phone can be used. The other party can't say it every year. I finally saw it this year. Samsung and Huawei have respectively launched folding mobile phones.
Sina Technology: What is the significance of folding screen mobile phones?
Wang Jianzhou: I am very optimistic and watch the folding screen, it is the turning point of the smartphone. After the iPhone appeared in 2007, there was basically no big change in the smartphone. The so-called changes were the screen size, camera photos and configuration changes.
However, the folding screen will be an epoch-making product that changes the structure. Simply put, it changed the screen size, and in a deeper sense, he removed the change between the tablet and the smartphone, and integrated the tablet and the phone. Therefore, I expect that the folding screen will bring new functions after it is fully commercialized. This is a very meaningful thing.
Sina technology: What is the difficulty of folding screen in manufacturing?
Wang Jianzhou: I have done some research on the manufacturing difficulties of folding screen mobile phones. Folding screens are called flexible displays, a technology that matured a few years ago. However, the reason why it can not be commercialized is that it is not a screen problem, but a problem of bottom plate and template. In the past, it used to be glass, the machine board was also glass, and the panel was also glass. Now it has been changed to plastic material. This involves the whole supply chain problem, which can not be solved by the electronic industry, which involves the chemical industry, the polymer industry and so on. After years of hard work, the problem has finally been solved.
Sina Technology: How to treat the high price of the folding screen?
Wang Jianzhou: There is a process for any product to mature. As the usage increases, the technology will continue to develop, the quality will definitely be better, and the price will be cheaper.
Many people think that folding screen mobile phones in the glass cover, but can not be touched. I actually experienced Huawei's mobile phone, and I still feel very good.
Talk · 5G tariff
The real feeling of use is 5 times faster, and the fee is certainly lower than 4G.
Sina Technology: how many times faster is 5G than 4G?
Wang Jianzhou: 5G speed is fast, each has its own saying. I think it should be measured by two indicators, provided that they are compared according to international standards.
The first indicator is called the peak rate, which is further referred to as the downlink peak rate. The downlink peak rate of 4G is 1G, that is, the transmission speed of the 1G bit per second, and the 5G can reach 20G, i.e.,20 G bits per second. Therefore, the downlink peak rate 5G should be 20 times that of 4G. But this is only the downlink rate of the entire base station and is completely different from the actual use experience.
The second indicator is the rate of user experience, which is the real experience on the user's mobile phone. It is limited by two conditions. The first is that there are many users, the personal experience speed will be slower; the second is related to the performance of the mobile phone itself. However, the International Telecommunication Union has stipulated that no matter how many users, the rate of each user should not be less than 100 megabytes, that is, 100 megabits per second. If it is less than 100 megabytes, it will not meet the 5G standard.
From the current point of view, 100 megabytes should be a very fast rate. As we all know, the average download speed of 4G mobile phones is 20 megabits, so there is a 5-fold relationship between 5G and 4G.
If you actually use it, the first feeling is to download things faster. From the practical application, the development of video class business may be the most direct, more video class content can be presented in mobile phones.
Sina Science and Technology: will the fee of 5G be lower than 4G?
Wang Jianzhou: I can't evaluate the specific tariffs now. First, according to experience, 2G to 3G, 3G to 4G, once every upgrade will drop once, the more advanced the technology, the lower the unit cost. Second, it can be predicted that the price of the unit will definitely decrease after the change from 4G to 5G, that is, the price of each G flow must drop, which is certain.
We should learn more about Internet companies, resources and network sharing.
Sina Technology: What opportunities will 5G bring to the three major operators?
Wang Jianzhou: for operators, I think it will be a new opportunity and, of course, challenges. In addition to some basic network services, opportunities mainly come from the application and application level. At present, compared with the application value, the network accounts for only 5%, and 95% of the value is manifested through the application. I now pay more attention to the industry application, it will start relatively quickly, such as autopilot and so on.
At present, it is proposed to establish a dedicated 5G network. In a dedicated 5G network, a lot of data is not used in the cloud, and the data can be processed directly nearby. These are for industrial applications. I suggest that operators must work on industry applications.
Where improvements are needed, for example, the applications developed by operators are only for their own users, in order to increase the stickiness of users and make the network more competitive. Some people call this model bundling. But Internet companies, on the other hand, no matter which operator you are, any operator can use it.
So in the next development, the operator should also join the Internet company, and the application of the network is combined with the basic network so that a larger user group can be reached. In addition, I propose a network share of 5G, because the standard of 5G is highly uniform, it is difficult to reach the difference of network base, and if the resource sharing and network share can be realized, a good solution will be generated.
So I strongly advocate encouraging operators to cooperate and share to the maximum extent possible, which can also reduce costs.
Millimeter wave still needs to be started, but its advantages and disadvantages are obvious.
Sina Science and Technology: What are the difficulties in the technology of 5G?
Wang Jianzhou: from a technical point of view, it must be constantly improved. I personally think that at present, millimeter is more mature than this. Now the 5G, most of which refers to the low and middle frequency band below 6G Hz, this effect is very good, relatively speaking, the construction cost is relatively low.
However, its problem is a serious shortage of this frequency band. If you want to achieve the downlink 20G bit rate, you need to start the millimeter wave, but the millimeter wave is not mature enough. Its advantages and disadvantages are obvious. The advantage is that the wave speed is relatively narrow, which is good for enhancing confidentiality. In addition, a small antenna can be used. The disadvantage is that the data transmission process has a large loss, and the coverage of the base station is relatively small, which will bring about an increase in the construction cost. Compared with the middle and low frequency bands, there are still some problems in the millimeter wave that need to be solved, and the purpose is to expand it. The scope of coverage reduces its construction costs.
Talking about industry
Manufacturers should grasp the relationship between immediate interests and long-term interests
Sina Technology: Can the 5G era bring real connectivity?
Wang Jianzhou: The answer is yes. Mobile communications vary from 1G to 5G. From 1G to 2G, the change is not very large, mainly based on voice; 2G to 3G has undergone a relatively large change, from voice to Internet data transmission; 3G to 4G change is not very large; and 4G to 5G will There are a lot of new businesses, and these businesses are mainly around the Internet of Everything. The development of the whole technology is nothing more than these factors: the ability to handle faster, the faster transmission capacity, and the increase in storage capacity. 5G plays a role in speeding up transmission. Therefore, it will inevitably promote the emergence of the Internet of Everything. This time it should be said that it is a big change.
Wang Jianzhou: The chip is of course important. As an example, the chip should be the most important component, and if an enterprise has a chip manufacturing capability, it can greatly improve its power.
There are two kinds of situations. The first one is the chips developed by mobile phone manufacturers themselves, such as Huawei and Samsung. The second one is developed by professional mobile phone chip developers, such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, etc. I think These two methods can coexist.
Sina Technology: Which vendors have advantages in the 5G era?
Wang Jianzhou: We have seen that each generation of mobile communications has the strongest at that time, but many of them have disappeared in the future, and even went bankrupt or acquired. Why is this happening? I am also thinking about it. For some manufacturers, I am writing a book called "China Mobile World Communication". From the first generation of mobile communication to the fifth generation, I not only witnessed but also participated, so I I want to record the history I know and do some analysis.
Sina Technology: Why do some manufacturers "disappear"?
Wang Jianzhou: this situation is more complicated. To put it simply, many people think they don't focus on innovation, which leads them to go downhill, but the reality is that every CEO wants to make its business stronger through innovation, which is beyond doubt.
So I think the real problem is how to deal with the relationship between immediate interests and long-term interests, which is a problem that the management of the communications industry must face, that is to say, it is necessary to have good financial performance in the immediate future. At the same time, we should invest in long-term planning, not only maintain performance growth, but also maintain long-term development, so it involves foresight.
Many enterprises fall, I think there is one thing in common, that is to pay more attention to the driving of finance, so in the case of the problem of the enterprise, the long-term income should be increased to change the situation, but some enterprises do not do so, but for the immediate benefit, By selling its high-quality assets, the enterprise will soon fall. They did not deal with the relationship between the interests of the eyes and the long-term interests.