Why are the injuries always middle, middle and middle?

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Photo Source @ Visual China

Text|智本社

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"these companies, BAT, can be 996, and it's a blessing for those of us."

-Mr. Ma

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Mr. Ma also felt aggrieved and dissatisfied. "I was lucky, I didn't regret 12, I never changed myself."

Lao en (Engels), who wears a pair of trousers with the old horse, will also join in the criticism: "Why do you take more than the workers?"

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Later, Russian Xiaobu (Bukharin) pointed to Mr Pang and scolded: "you are 'the eater's political economics'."

After Xiao Pang became Lao Pang, he taught a student called Xiao Xiong (Xiong Pitt). Cubs have imagined the same eclecticism as another old horse (Marshall, Ma’s talented people). He distinguishes between capitalists and entrepreneurs and tries to reconcile the dispute. The bear thinks, "The pony is not a capitalist, but an entrepreneur. The pony ‘not regret 12*12’ is a rare entrepreneurial spirit.”

At this time, a younger son of Lao Pang, Haha (Hayek) jumped out, "Roll, you are the one who betrayed the teacher."

Mr. Ma can only send a Weibo, citing "Happiness is the struggle", to quell this century-long debate and avoid the expansion of the situation.

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If you are middle-aged, middle-aged or middle-aged, I'm afraid.

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Both employers and employees are never antagonistic, and should not be class opposition, but cooperation in the game. Many people said that as long as Mr. Ma gave enough money, "996" is fine. You see, the market mechanism works, the price is satisfactory, there is no extra nonsense.

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"To pay tribute to the strugglers" is certainly a must-have quality of this era. In fact, throughout the East Asian cultural circle, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China's Beishang Guangshen have a heavy workload, employees work overtime, and the boss “hemates blood” to make money, of which Japan is the most.

However, like most bosses, Mr. Ma confused the concept of workers and bosses. There is a labor contract relationship between enterprises and workers. Under the labor law framework, according to market rules, the price mechanism is used to match the two sides. However, there is no labor contract between the company and the boss.

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The question is, since the employer and the employee are equal contractual relationships, rely on the boss to supervise the workers, not the workers to supervise the bosses?

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Later, the old horses with culture could not stand it, and used the "surplus value" to accuse the capitalists of exploitation. With the banner of theory, workers actively organized trade unions against capitalists. The capitalists took Lao Pang’s theory against the trade unions, and the two could not hold together.

At this time, Marshall was proud of the old man (Piggu) out of the classical framework, and studied a "welfare economics", saying that "robbing the rich and helping the poor" is economically justified, and it is recommended to protect labor and increase the welfare of the poor.

Later, Russia and Germany were all changed. The British, French and American politicians could not sit still. They adopted the welfare claims of Lao She, and they improved the Labor Protection Law and adopted the minimum wage standard system.

So far, the contract supervision of the workers to the enterprise, half of the government and the judiciary to deal with. Today, workers basically do not need to consider the issue of contract supervision, as long as the end of the month is on time to pay as many as possible.

In contrast, it is much harder for companies to supervise workers.

It is difficult for the boss to take care of all the workers. Workers can use the boss's supervision blind spot "rent-seeking". Rent-seeking is not a bureaucrat. In fact, rent-seeking by workers is extremely common. For example, using office hours to chat about personal WeChat, using financial loopholes to reimburse private tickets, using corporate resources to do business privately, using procurement rights to receive supplier benefits, and so on.

According to the Austrian school, entrepreneurs are engaged in "inter-temporal coordination" by first offering money to rent office buildings, pay salaries, purchase raw materials, open factories, and look forward to future profits. The intertemporal process is a "risk process" for sunk costs, and bosses have to push workers to work hard in order to reduce the risk of sunk costs.

In fact, in the market, everyone is doing “intertemporal work” and the market is a mutual intertemporal mechanism.

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So, at first, capitalists tried to use all kinds of "earth methods" to supervise workers, such as whip, mirror peek, "walking management", today upgraded to reward and punishment system, fingerprint sign-in, target management.

Later, the United States came out with a talent called Taylor. This monarch was originally a Harvard high school student, but he was forced to enter the steel factory as a worker because of his eye disease. High-quality student Taylor worked for five years and found ways to improve efficiency. He did various experiments, fixed each worker in the post, and the worker's movements coordinated with the operation of the machine, thus forming a scientific management.

In 1895, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers published the piece-by-piece wage system, which was released by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers in 1895, with the immobilization of workers' posts, the standardization of actions, and the maximization of production capacity. It fits perfectly with Taylor's scientific management. In this way, workers can also under the piece-by-piece wage system, understand their daily income, wages have also increased a lot. In today's words, workers work for themselves, more labor than more.

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Taylor was the first generation of professional managers. From the original mechanic apprentice, he gradually grew into a worker, a team leader, a foreman, a technician, a chief engineer, and finally a general manager. Later, after Taylor became famous, he came out to open a management consulting company and became a capitalist in the eyes of the workers.

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However, Taylor’s approach was still opposed by the union. A young socialist named Sinclair wrote to the editor-in-chief of the American magazine, accusing Taylor of "increasing his salary by 61% and increasing his workload by 362%."

Later, a psychologist in the United States called Herzberg, who found that material conditions, basic wages, and management measures can only play a protective role. It is recommended to use the "quantity recruitment, job promotion" approach to motivate workers. This is the "two-factor theory." This is like the ancient imperial examination system. Everyone is fighting for the fame, and willing to "read the window."

In this way, the “worker-management worker” and the promotion system of professional managers are equivalent to constructing a delicate bridge between capitalists and workers. Professional managers are both workers and regulators of enterprises.

On New Year's Day in 1950, Drucker went to visit Xiong Lao (Xiong Pitt, the bear has become an old bear) with his father. Drucker’s father was actually a teacher of Schumpeter at the University of Vienna. Drucker grew up in an academic family and a family. Drucker’s father asked Schumpeter: “You still tell people what you want to be remembered by future generations?”

When Schumpeter was young, he was very attractive to girls at the University of Vienna. At that time, someone asked him, what do you want to be remembered in the future? "I want to be a great economist and a beauty in Europe," he replied. "more than 30 years later, when the teachers met again, the teacher teased Schumpeter about the question."

Schumpeter said, "Yes. The question is still important to me today. However, the answer is quite different from the original. At this age, it's not important that people remember my books and theories. If a man can't make a difference in the lives of others, then his life can only be regarded as mediocre. "

Eight days later, Schumpeter died.

Four years later, Drucker published an epoch-making book, the practice of Management, which established management as an independent science and was regarded as the father of management.

Many people know that Drucker's fame does not necessarily understand why he has such a high reputation. Drucker's life is a work of the same kind, many of which seem unremarkable today, but in fact, many of the management ideas were created by him.

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Drucker, who likens corporate groups to religious groups, said: "running Wal-Mart is certainly different from running the Roman Catholic Church. But in all organizations, about 90 percent of the problems are common, and only 10 percent are different, "mission determines vision, vision determines structure."

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Drucker redefines management, he said, "telling managers to put into practice is management rather than economics (Schumpeter's innovative theory), not measurement (Taylor's scientific management principles), not behavioral sciences Tsenberg's two-factor theory)".

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On November 11, 2005, the "father of management" passed away. Mr. Drucker summed up the “practical wisdom”, in which era built the common beliefs of workers, managers, entrepreneurs and corporate organizations.

Fourteen years later, in 2018 and November 11, Zeng Shiqiang, the father of Chinese-style management, died. The father of two generations of management, one inheriting the western rule consciousness and the other inheriting the Chinese camera tradition, failed to integrate Chinese workers, managers, entrepreneurs and enterprises into the organization effectively.

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Workers work overtime, bosses cry, enterprises lose money, so it is difficult to form a community among the three. What's the problem?

At the moment, China is trying to cut taxes on a large scale and "let go of water and fish", which is also the truth of "live water for a source."

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This kind of problem exists not only in the small and medium-sized enterprises, but also in the listed companies. Although the information of listed companies is relatively public, they are public companies. It is difficult for shareholders to give up shareholders' power in the secondary market, and there are all kinds of blind spots in the company's supervision of agents.

In publicly traded companies around the world, many managers use the power to raise wages, change salary performance incentives, expand new projects, control more money and power, integrate suppliers or customer resources, and maximize the amount of money from investors. Or for their own career road casting golden footstone.

Of course, most managers, like ordinary workers, work overtime, with great pressure and fierce competition. To make matters worse, once the company's performance is poor or strategic, the most likely to be fired is the high-paying managers, especially the large middle managers.

In 2019, the Internet giant layoffs renewed.

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Jingdong Group is promoting the transformation of “small group, big business”, escorting the development of diversified businesses, and also announced the elimination of 10% of senior executives above the level of senior executives.

Why is the Internet abruptly the middle of the most serious?

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The trend of flattening organizations is irreversible. More and more traditional enterprises use information technology, and high-level departments directly control the grassroots. Mr. Zhang, who is keen on organizing changes, said in 2014 that “there were 16,000 employees cut off last year, and Haier will have to cut a lot of money to cut 10,000 middle-level managers.”

35, the current survival of middle age

"the people who hang out are not my brothers," Liu said. "the real brothers must be those who work together to take on responsibility and pressure and enjoy the fruits of success together."

Mr. Ma said: "If you are not 996 when you are young, when can you be 996?"

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In the workplace, the middle and middle ages often have a fair degree of fit.

Graduation work more than ten years, to the middle level, the age of 30 to 40. Originally, this age according to life science definition should be young and strong youth. However, in the workplace, is middle-aged, more than half the working age, more than a decade or so have to retire. Some professions, such as programmers, hosts, hotel waiters, models, aged 35 or older, are middle-aged and even middle-aged.

Previously, Huawei had rumors of “clearing over 34 years old” and was later denied by employees. However, Ren Zhengfei mentioned in an internal speech that "Huawei has no money. If everyone does not struggle, they will be embarrassed. It is impossible to pay for those who are not struggling. Younger and strong in their 30s, do not work hard, just want to lie in bed. Money, maybe?"

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As a result, middle-level "bloated" and middle-aged "Youtiao" once superimposed, it is easy to become the target of layoffs.

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Drucker said that corporate organizations have our common career vision and mission. However, if you leave this vision and mission, you may no longer be suitable for this organization. The professionalism of the Japanese is more from the “shame” and “introspection” culture of the Yamato nation. The professionalism of Hong Kong people is the result of a highly professional and brutal competition.

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It is easy for people to encounter the "professional wall" in middle age and middle level:

In the position, the executive position is limited, encounters the promotion ceiling; in the study, after the promotion incentive drops, the person's study enterprise is also declining; in the family, the child education, the family affairs become more and more heavy, sometimes the lack of individual skill, it is difficult to insist on "996"; Desire, after the middle class, has a certain survival security, the margin of wealth desire began to decline; Career, due to career inertia, the possibility of job-hopping to get a better position is less, the opportunity cost of entrepreneurship is higher, more willing to stabilize in the middle of the enterprise.

From an economic point of view, this is completely in line with the law of diminishing marginal returns.

When people go to the middle level, or to a certain income level, the marginal tendency of wealth, position, and honor will decline. Compared with the initial entry, the same amount of salary increase, the same level of promotion, the same spiritual medal, the incentive effect is not that big. External incentives decline, and if self-motivation does not arise, it is easy to stay in the middle to live.

In this way, the middle layer of the organization is easy to form an institutional barrier lake.

The large, bloated, inefficient middle layer is very unfavorable to the development of the enterprise. In general, if a company wants a strategic transformation success, it will inevitably have to replace a group of managers, especially the middle level. We know that when a company grows to 100 people, the boss's idea is difficult to fully implement. Many big companies such as Kodak and Nokia have failed to transform, and it is not unclear about the strategic direction, but the "big tail" can not be adjusted.

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If a company's management costs are too high, higher than the market transaction costs, then there is no reason for the company to exist. That year, Coase graduated from the London School of Economics and went to a scholarship to do research at large American companies to discover this pattern. He uses the term transaction costs to explain why companies exist-organizations that can reduce transaction costs and make intra-firm more efficient, replacing market mechanisms.

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As a boss, which way would you choose?

The boss generally considers the cost and benefit, and which one is low cost, good effect, and strong stability will naturally choose which one. If the latter is better, then there is a reason to design this business within the enterprise. If a company's business is not as low as the market's procurement costs, and the benefits are good, then the company will naturally lose money.

How do companies reduce costs, improve efficiency, and control quality?

At this point, the role of management came into play. When Coase looked at American industry, large American factories had introduced sound Taylor scientific management and Ford-invented assembly lines. Coase marveled at the orderly, scientific, precise scheduling and planning of large American industries.

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At the beginning of the 20th century, Taylor Scientific Management was significant in reducing internal costs and improving efficiency. It was the basic guarantee for the operation of giant trusts at that time. Scientific management has greatly expanded the survival boundary of enterprises. Many trusts have swallowed the inefficient market and formed a huge scale economy.

This is the substitution effect of high-efficiency enterprise to low-efficiency market and low-cost enterprise to high-cost market.

However, just as “the tree does not grow into the sky”, there are boundaries in corporate expansion. Once the firm reaches the marginal turning point, the scale effect does not exist and begins to enter the cycle of diminishing returns.

Why is there a marginal turning point?

One of the preconditions for the law of diminishing marginal utility is that the level of technology remains the same. When the management and technical level remain unchanged, the manpower input, capital investment, institutional expansion, and management expansion will continue to increase, and the law of diminishing returns will occur.

In reality, the management system is not updated, the management methods are not changed, the management efficiency is not improved, and the management does not act, which means that the management personnel are accumulated, so that the enterprise benefits will gradually be eroded by the bloated management institutions. Institutions are bloated and managers are absent from work. In fact, managers are looking for rents in large numbers. The specific performance is that they are not officers, few officers, and people are overstaffed. Once the internal management costs are higher than the market transaction costs, the company may be replaced by the market and thus be disintegrated by competitors.

The market competition follows the cruel jungle law, the enterprise competition is so, the profession competition is also so.

In the profession, in addition to the ability to compete, there is price competition. Usually, our life is “incapable of being extravagant and easy to enter.” After consumption habits are developed, they are irreversible, that is, they are easy to adjust upwards and difficult to adjust downwards. American economist Duisenberg called it the "ratchet effect."

Keynes later deducted it into the wage field, believing that wages were sticky, easy to adjust up, but difficult to adjust downwards. The ratcheting effect of wages itself stems from the ratcheting effect of consumption. The ratchet effect makes it hard for employees to accept a pay cut. If companies reduce costs, the first choice is to lay off staff, eliminate high-paid managers without producing performance, rather than lower wages.

The consumption level of middle-aged people is higher, the wage income reaches a certain level, the quality of life is more pursued, the family burden is heavy, the living cost is high, and the ratcheting effect of consumption and wages is more obvious. Young people can eat full, less resistant to pay cuts than middle-aged people.

Therefore, when controlling costs, companies are more inclined to abolish middle-aged employees who are unwilling to accept a pay cut.

In addition, the company will consider rent-seeking issues and monitoring costs after pay cuts.

If the pay cuts are overwhelming, a forced pay cut may hurt their work enthusiasm. In general, the greater the wage ratcheting effect, the greater the resistance, and the more obvious the tendency to absenteeism after salary reduction. The more obvious the absenteeism, the more serious the rent-seeking problem, and the company's efficiency will decline. In order to improve work efficiency, the company may need to increase supervision and incentives, so that costs will rise. In this way, the salary cut may not be worth the candle.

As a result, the company will choose to lower wages for employees with relatively little resistance, while abolishing those who are more resistant.

Compared with young people, middle-aged unemployment is much more cruel. In general, in order to reduce risk, the middle and above positions will match the peer work experience or self-cultivation, rather than cross-line search or direct short position. Due to professional habits, thinking inertia, industry limitations, and wage ratcheting effects, middle-aged professionals do not have large company resumes, have insufficient network resources, or have created jobs, or want to change careers, and want to find suitable middle and above jobs. Extremely difficult.

The so-called middle-aged crisis is mainly not "greasy" and "vulgar", but a professional crisis and a income crisis. When people reach middle age and the kidneys are not young, they must cultivate other advantages, such as connections, resources, experience, and so on. For middle-aged people, it is necessary to challenge self and humanity to maintain professional competitiveness and career desire.

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2035, the Future of the Middle Class

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Generally speaking, a middle-aged workplace of about 35 years old is in the middle of the company, settled in the city, married, has children, borrows to buy a house, and has a car to travel. If you are the intersection of middle, middle and middle, then you may be a group that is more "injured".

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Money-property-survival rights are a hidden economic lifeline. In the middle, middle and middle ages, in order to compete for the city's right to life (marriage and marriage rights, quality education choices, social status, etc.), plus leveraged loans to buy a house, a large number of loans to buy a house actually supports huge bank credit. For the market, commercial banks are the central banks of enterprises and individuals. The credit currency is real money, and a large number of credit currencies are issued with real estate and land as collateral.

Therefore, the city's right to subsistence supports high housing prices and high currencies. Money and houses are the standard of subsistence.

Jumping out to see this problem, middle-income housing and loans, is not based on normal market investment or consumption, but a "forced" right to life, just due to the need.

In a market game, once you are on the side of "rigid demand", you are bound to lose. Just as in the war years, grain shortage, people to survive inevitably rush to buy grain, grain merchants hoarding at this time, raising prices. But because of their livelihood, people also have to buy at a high price.

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This kind of market does not appear in the war years, and it often exists in the real economy. For example, when inflation occurs, the more money is distributed, the greater the demand for loans, the greater the demand, and the more money is issued, thus entering a vicious bubble cycle.

The reason is that the inflation period is beneficial to the debtor rather than the creditor. Enterprises and individuals will continue to borrow money when they are forced to survive, worry about currency depreciation, and try to offset the depreciation rate by constantly borrowing.

However, credit cannot expand at the limit. When the leverage is full, this debt cycle game cannot be supported, the bubble bursts, and the debt crisis breaks out. then. Monetary tightening, asset prices have shrunk, credit has fallen, credit lines have fallen, business conditions have deteriorated, credit has fallen again, asset prices have shrunk, and credit lines have fallen again...

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Most of the wealth of the global middle class is allocated to the property. The investment of middle-class property in real estate is not entirely based on rational choice of investment, but more inclined to the need for survival - degree room, convenient work, comfort, size of apartment and family population. However, real estate developers, real estate investors, and real estate speculators are based on rational choice of investment. This is the game between passive and active, rational and irrational, just need and free supply.

In this way, as a middle-class buyer, the game between them is obviously at a disadvantage, and more needs to benefit the latter. Housing prices are higher, in order to get married, children to read, the middle class have chosen to buy a house. Nowadays, there are still many buyers who want to buy a house at the price of Beishangguangshen. This is equivalent to the fact that the middle class was forced to take over the high-priced housing.

For the middle class, even if you own the property, it is just a "card house" of wealth, but the debt is real. Property valuations are high and cannot be realized, but mortgages must be repaid each month. Now north to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, many middle-class companies support two or three thousand monthly mortgage loans. The first thing to do is to pay the monthly salary, and then dare to arrange other expenses.

If the middle class is middle-aged and the middle-level layoffs are encountered, the unemployed middle class will face huge debt pressure and crisis the urban survival right of a middle-class family.

Someone said, I can sell the property in Shenzhen, with 10 million housing to live in small cities. Doing so would be tantamount to abandoning the city's right to exist in Shenzhen. This certainly has nothing right or wrong, belongs to the individual life view and the value orientation choice.

Therefore, once the property is tied to the city's subsistence right, then real estate is no longer a normal free market, and will inevitably evolve into a price-distorted market. For the middle class that struggles for the survival of the city, it will have to pay a huge cost for this system.

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However, from a global perspective, the biggest black hole in the economy is not the market failure itself, but the regulation of the visible hand.

The most prominent is the money market. The monetary authorities control the money supply, and the money can not distribute money completely according to the market mechanism, which leads to the surplus of money in some places, fields, enterprises and individuals, and the monetary tightening in some places, areas, enterprises and individuals. Money surplus areas are sold to money-poor areas, breeding large profit-eaters and widening the gap between the rich and the poor.

The Fed controls the supply of the world's largest currency, the dollar, and Wall Street controls the surplus of money, selling dollars to US manufacturing, farmers, middle class and countries around the world through financial derivatives and financing markets. Since the 1980s, with the formation of the Reagan Circle, a global dollar-selling market has expanded rapidly. Wall Street absorbs the low-return dollar from the national debt and bonds, and then sells it overseas to obtain higher returns.

When the dollar is loose, Wall Street is booming and money is selling; when the dollar is tightening, Wall Street can gain international capital with a strong dollar, while emerging countries are caught in a dollar shortage, currency crisis and debt crisis.

This starts from the "Reagan Grand Cycle", the US debt is increasing, the gap between the rich and the poor is growing, Wall Street is earning more and more, and emerging countries are caught in the US dollar cyclical debt crisis.

In the "Reagan Grand Cycle" system, the debt and currency crisis brought about by the austerity risk of the US dollar is enough to make emerging countries toss a century, typically Argentina and Mexico. After World War II, only Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, China, were promoted to advanced economies. Most of the remaining countries are stranded in the middle income range, and many countries are caught in the so-called “middle income trap”. Not only is economic growth weak, but it is also a problem and a contradiction.

The key to emerging countries, of course, is internal problems, not America and the dollar. But under the global monetary system and the Reagan cycle, emerging countries will face crisis ransacking over and over again, making it hard to break through.

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Each global economic crisis or regional economic crisis would ransack middle-income countries and also ransacked the middle class.

Wealth is a phantom, and debt is reality.

The way to alleviate this problem is to decouple real estate from urban survival rights, break the monopoly of land supply, and let the real estate market freely dominate. Real estate marketization is not the best way, after all, it is a market for survival rights. But the worst thing is the monetization and financialization of real estate.

However, the current real estate and urban survival rights are unlikely to be decoupled. Because the whole economic system is built on the right to exist in the city, money is the standard system of the right to exist in the city, it is very difficult to reverse this inertia. Although Hong Kong's Hong Kong dollar is a US dollar standard and the government's property security system is good, the city is still being carried away by the habitual financialization of real estate and is growing stronger.

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, especially in the 1980s, the Reagan Circle has not been established, and no country in the world can change this situation. In the era of floating exchange rates and credit currencies, the imbalance of the international money supply, the middle-income trap, the middle class crisis, and the polarization between the rich and the poor are becoming more and more serious.

The fundamental problem lies in monetary theory.

In the currency field, Friedman, the smartest mind, built the modern quantitative theory of money, the global economy and the era of the national economy began to enter the central bank's currency cycle. Many people may find that the world today seems to have entered the era of planned economy of “currency adjustment”. Credit, property market, stock market, manufacturing, and exports all fluctuated with the tightening of the US dollar and the local currency. This means of controlling the supply of money is the initiator.

For the middle class, real estate is not a problem, money is the devil.

Today, many people in the United States criticize modern monetary quantitative theory as a dangerous and root cause of several debt crises, regardless of the debt index and the structural imbalance of the economy. But beyond this theory, economists and monetary authorities do not seem to have a more reliable theory.

Mundell was an early opponent of the theory, arguing with Friedman at the University of Chicago. Mundell's theory of "optimal currency" and "thumb rule" promoted the creation of the euro. In some ways, Mundell's theory is more scientific, but today the euro zone's debt problems and social contradictions are more complex.

From the perspective of global performance, financial system and monetary theory, the collapse of the middle class seems inevitable.

The middle class is a backbone of the country, a stabilizer for society, and a contributor to taxation. It is also the main creator of welfare and the main bearer of debt.

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This means that by 2035, this generation of middle class has not retired or just retired, and the social security balance has been short.

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[1] Bystander, Peter Drucker, Mechanical Industry Press;

[2] principles of Scientific Management, Frederick Taylor, Mechanical Industry Press;

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[4] is the Social Security Fund in deficit? Sohu net;

[5] Power Law Society (audio course), Qinghe, Zhibenshe.

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Injured middle middle age middle class

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