Photo by Forest Simon on Unsplash, is from official account: 35 Dou (ID:vcearth) by Sun Feng
I ran too fast.
The time for planning this manuscript is 8:00 am on July 8, 2019. As of 10:00, the pork concept stocks fluctuated and the Tiankang Bio (002100) rose more than 7%. Aonong Bio (603363) and Zhengbang Technology ( 002157), Muyuan shares (002714) rose more than 3%. At the same time, the A-share market plunged and the market value evaporated by more than one trillion.
The agricultural and pork concept stocks are really a bit red in the green.
Looking back in the afternoon, I have the following shocking watch.
July 8, 2019 pork concept stocks uptrend chart
Data source: Straight Flush, 35 bucket finishing.
Big three stocks, word for word!
This is not common in the Agriculture Unit and the Pork concept Unit.
Is it running fast enough that the plague cannot catch up with you?
From the confirmation of the first outbreak of African swine fever in Liaoning, China, in August 2018, to April 19, 2019, the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Agriculture announced that the outbreak of swine fever in Africa occurred in Wanning City and Danzhou City, Hainan Province. So far, it has spread to 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in the mainland, and only Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan have not yet seen the epidemic.
The outbreak of swine fever in China, to a certain extent, comes from the characteristics of the virus itself difficult to prevent and control, but to a greater extent, it lies in the extensive breeding characteristics of institutional farmers in our country.
Traditionally, pig farming is an industry that has nothing to do with technology and technology. According to calculations by Zhiyan Consulting and other institutions, the cost of pork production in the United States is equivalent to 4.5 yuan per catty, and the cost of production in China is 80 percent higher than that in the United States. However, in fecal treatment, epidemic prevention and control, disease treatment, genetic improvement, animal husbandry in China shows deficiencies, but also everywhere.
We studied 29 pork concept stocks listed on A shares and GEM. 29 companies were found to have a total sales volume of 420 billion yuan in 2018, but the total R&D expenses of 29 companies were only 2.5 billion yuan, which is less than the annual research and development expenses of 360 companies.
List of R & D and Revenue of the Whole-year Pork Concept Unit in the first quarter of 2019 and 2018
Data source: Announcement of each company, 35 buckets.
Although agricultural stocks and technology stocks are not much relevant and comparable in R&D investment, they also explain from the side that China's pork concept stocks have an average research and development cost of less than 100 million yuan, and there is widespread research investment. The industry as a whole is more extensive.
If we only say that the absolute value of R&D expenses is statistically biased, then we can use the ratio of R&D to income to see the R&D ratio of pork concept companies.
Research and Development / operating income list of Pork concept stocks in 2018
Data source: Announcement of each company, 35 buckets.
Excluding Delis, Guanghong Holdings, Dakang Agricultural three enterprises, the financial report did not disclose R & D input costs, in accordance with the certification standards of high-tech enterprises, the annual income of enterprises with an annual income of more than 200 million, R & D expenses should be more than 3%. And pork concept stocks, only Germany and the United States Chemical to meet this requirement. Only seven enterprises (24%) have a research-to-income ratio of more than 1%.
The secondary capital market first responded to the significance of corporate R&D.
Judging from the contrarian trend of pork concept stocks on July 8, except for Delis, the top five stock price gains, all invested more than 1% in research and development expenses.
For a long time, pork and other agricultural concept stocks have been untouched by capital in the capital market. To a large extent, there are many operational spaces for agricultural concept stocks and cost calculations, similar to “pig are starved to death” and “ The incident of scallops escaping is difficult to be recognized by the capital, but it has nothing to do with the occurrence and outcome of the incident.
Research and development is the driving force for enterprises to keep moving forward, which is one of the applicable standards in every industry. The investment in R & D of agricultural enterprises, intuitively speaking, shows the efforts of enterprises in anti-risk ability and innovative ability. When other financial items are the same and there is not much innovation, R & D investment ratio is one of the manifestations of hard power.
Observing the price trend in the past 10 years, it is not difficult to find that pork prices and prices follow each other. Because pork prices account for about 3 per cent of CPI (Consumer Price Index), CPI is also jokingly referred to as the "Chinese Pork Index" (China Pig Index).
Looking at the financial results of major pork concept stocks, it can be found that companies have generally made early warning and forecasts on the decline in pork prices in the first half of 2018, as well as the attack on swine fever in Africa in the second half of 2018. In the financial results, enterprises have not been seen in the African swine fever suffered direct trauma.
In the case of Huaguang Co., Ltd.,35 reporters contacted the other party to know the details of the swine fever, and the secretary explained that: "In addition to that fundamental impact of the company's fundamentals, the share price of the company is subject to various factors of the secondary market, and the company has not yet received information about the outbreak of the African swine fever."
But this does not mean that the epidemic has little impact on pork concept enterprises.
35 reporters contacted Shun Xin Agriculture, the other party replied:
"In 2018, the industry has experienced a double impact on the price of the pig's swine fever. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of pork in the whole year of 2018 is 5404 million tons, down by 0.9% from the previous year, and the pig stock is 42817 million, down by 3.0% over the previous year, and the pig's output is 69382 million. In the first half of 2018, the price of live pigs fell, and the price of live pigs fell, and the price of live pigs in May-July was returned to the warm in the first half of 2018. In August, the epidemic of the swine fever caused by the outbreak of the swine fever in August led to the limited regulation of live pigs, and the imbalance in supply of the north and south pigs led to the gradual widening of the regional spread. As a result of the high level of supply reduction, the prices of pigs in the high-frequency provinces of the north continue to be low. But with the closure of the blockade in some provinces in the fourth quarter, the flow of live pigs is further increased, The pig's price is generally down due to the concentration of live pigs. The outbreak of swine fever in Africa has brought some difficulties to the whole industry in the short term, but it will also push the industry to reshuffle and adjust the whole country. In the whole, the supply of live pigs in 2019 will begin to be in a tight state since the second half of the year, The production capacity is accelerated to be clear, the inflection point of the pig price period is expected to be advanced, and the configuration value of the pig breeding plate is highlighted."
But after 10,000 steps, if pigs are raised like food, there is still a phenomenon of watching the world. The future of China's animal husbandry industry will certainly have a long way to go.
The view of the company has been confirmed in the market.
In June 2019, the Ministry of Agriculture announced the data of the deposits in May 2019, and the number of able-to-feed sows and live pigs decreased. In May 2019, the number of breeding sows was 25.1 million, down 4.1% from the previous month (down 2.5% from April), down 23.9% year-on-year; the number of live pigs was about 255 million, down 4.2% from the previous month (the month-on-month decline in April) 2.9%); down 22.9% year-on-year. No matter the number of sows and pigs, the number of live pigs decreased, and the year-on-year decline was a new high.
Pushing forward for 2 months, on April 17, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that pork prices will rise by more than 70% in the second half of this year. On June 26, the data of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the average price of piglets in 500 rural markets in the country had exceeded 41.02 yuan / kg, an increase of 70.5% over the same period last year. The price will eventually be transmitted to the pork market for about half a year.
The market is expected to be the strongest pig cycle.
In May, major companies announced that the sales of pigs in many aquaculture companies increased, and the main reason for the increase in income was the sharp increase in the price of live pigs. Starting from the bottoming out of the pig price in March this year, the new round of the rising cycle has already begun.
In addition, under the influence of the epidemic situation of the swine fever in Africa, the production capacity of the pig in the country is significantly lower, the supply gap is continuously expanded, the overlapping capacity recovery is slow, the feeding confidence of the cultivation end is insufficient, and the expected period is expected to be long. This also lengthens the period of price increases to a certain extent.
It can be said that the pork concept stocks have indeed ushered in a dividend period, and the next step is expected to continue to rise.
On the evening of June 11, the listed company Haiyin Co., Ltd. announced that it would sign a cooperation contract with Xu Qitai and Jinzhu Company for the production of Jinzhu polysaccharide injection (according to the announcement, it is a traditional Chinese medicine injection that can prevent African swine fever). Then they received inquiries from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has only approved five laboratories for the development of African swine fever, of which only Harbin Research can be poisonous. In the previous period, Harbin Research announced the staged progress of the vaccine. It is expected that industrialization will be more difficult within 1-2 years.
The haze of African swine fever is difficult to wave away in a short period of time. But African swine fever is not the biggest gloom for Chinese pork concept companies.
As the first big country of the world's diet, nearly 10 years have come to the end of the epidemic in our culture industry. The so-called period, in addition to the fluctuation of consumption, is closely related to the epidemic prevention and control, the supply chain, the degree of industrialization of the culture process, and the like.
A vulgar saying, when the wind comes, pigs can fly. Now the pig has flown, but how long the wind will blow, how long the pig can fly, is a long list of questions.
Now that we have taken off, you should take this opportunity to see the situation and opportunity at the high light and increase the investment in the field of production, university and research. When the wind stops and the pig falls, at least it should be a soft landing that won't hurt the bones.
The new hope, large enterprises such as the big North, the Winner, etc., can resist the market risk in scale effect, but in contrast, those with no more than 100 billion of the pork concept stocks, the anti-risk ability should be strengthened.
For example, Eagle Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, once the leading enterprise of China's pig industry, has been subjected to falling pig prices, feed crisis, debt default and so on, and eventually became St shares. The stock price has fallen from 9.3 yuan to 0.92 yuan today, and is in danger of delisting or even bankruptcy.
This is a carnival, but behind it there is a hidden opportunity for the industry to reshuffle.
This article is from the public number:35 (ID: vceth), author: Sun Feng
* the article is an independent point of view of the author, which does not represent the position of tiger olfactory net. This paper is published by 35 authorized tiger olfactory net and edited by tiger olfactory net. Reprint this article with the consent of the author, and please attach the source (tiger olfactory net) and links to this page. Original link: https://www.huxiu.com/article/308096.html
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